(as at 1 May 2024)
This chart is based on very simple guidelines. First, if a player is currently injured but has been given a recovery timeline that would have them fit for the first test against England on Saturday 6 July 2024, they have been considered. Likewise players on sabbitical – either in Japan like Ardie Savea, Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett – or a non-playing sabbitical like Codie Taylor, who its been clearly indicated will return and be immediately considered for the first test, are in the mix. And finally, I’ve tried to pick who I believe the All Black selectors would go with to play test match rugby in each specific position. This is based on comments, interviews, the odd bit of intel picked up around the traps & the playing styles of previous teams they have been involved with. The latter is because of the obvious point that, with the exception of Jason Ryan, it is a new coaching group. So with those caveats laid out and the chart posted above, lets get started:
LOOSEHEAD PROP – Ethan de Groot remains the clear number one and Xavier Numia has continued to grow, delivering consistent performances for the last couple of seasons. Williams return remains unknown but he’s definitely top three, but should Tamaiti not be up to speed, you have a veteran playing excellent rugby in Ofa Tu’ungafasi to fall back on, who can also cover both sides. George Bower rounds out the top five based on previous experience ahead of Aidan Ross.
HOOKER – Codie Taylor and Asafo Aumua are a clear one-two at the moment, however the drop off to the next three is concerning. Samisoni Taukei’aho hasn’t been the steady contributer of past Chiefs campaigns, while the highly touted George Bell is also searching for consitency. Ricky Riccitelli has been playing excellent rugby and deserved to be in discussions.
TIGHTHEAD PROP – Like hooker, there’s two clear standouts in Tyrel Lomax and Fletcher Newell. I’ve got George Dyer just ahead of the still ailing Tamaiti Williams, while Saula Ma’u is the latest in a long line of quality Tongan-born propping products. There’s also a 20-year-old who’s a very intriguing prospect, especially to Jason Ryan, and that is Siale Lauaki, who possess a blend of strength, athleticism, skill, technique and work-rate that is very appealing in a young, raw talent.
LOCK – There’s a massive void to fill with the respective retirement and departure of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick. Scott Barrett is seen by some as a captaincy contender, while Tupou Vaa’i is establish and playing well, as is a rejuvenated Patrick Tuipulotu. Now here’s where it gets fun. Josh Lord is being troubled by a niggly injury but has impressed during his minimal time and has had a taste of international rugby; Caleb Delany and Jamie Hannah are two young players who are relentless and uncaring about how they thrash their bodies for the betterment of their teams, while Isaia Walker-Leaware and Quentin Strange playing in the same manner, but are slightly older athletes. Fabian Holland is another youngin who has an injury, but all the measureables, while Sam Darry has recently returned from injury and is getting up to speed very quickly. There are plenty of options in the second row and selections in this area is going to tell us a fair bit about Scott Robertson and his approach to his inaugural year as ABs coach.
BLINDSIDE – As it was during the last RWC cycle, the number six jersey is very much up for grabs, but there are more players performing at a high level to make it less of a concern than it was for the previous four years. Ethan Blackadder was called up to RWC2023 ahead of Samipeni Finau, hence he’s in prime position for me, while Luke Jacobson is a great option for all three loose forward positions. Devon Flanders has the size, physicality and form to make the step up and looms as an intriguing option, given he doesn’t look out of place in the middle of the second either, and while I prefer Cullen Grace as a number eight, he could be just as impactful on the side of the scrum.
OPENSIDE – Razor has options as how he chooses to deploy Ardie Savea, given he’s the top option (in my opinion at least) in two positions. Dalton Papali’i and Billy Harmon is an interesing conversation as to who is next cab off the rank, given Harmon has been outstanding in a vastly under-performing team. I have Sam Cane at four, which I know is going to trigger a lot people, so please hear me out. We have no idea what is happening with Sam Cane and the injury that has keep him out of most of the Japanese season, but he is eligible, under contract until 2025 and he is the incumbant captain, so until there is some definitive information – either on said injury or his status in the eyes of the new coach – I’ve got to have him in the mix, just ahead of Jacobson. It would be remiss not to mention Peter Lakai, who like Saile Lauaki, might just need another season of NPC, an All Blacks XV tour and solid 2025 Super Rugby campaign, the latter working with a returning Ardie Savea, but he’s not far off. PS I really like DuPlessis Kirifi, but he’s needs to be less obvious and more sneaky at the breakdown.
NUMBER EIGHT – I still think Ardie wears the eight jersey, but good quality below with Luke Jacobson, Brayden Iose, Hoskins Sotutu and Cullen Grace. Another player for the futre is Wallace Sititi, who has been very impressive, though very, very early in his Super Rugby career.
HALFBACKS – The Cam Roigard injury has made this position beyond fascinating. Finlay Christie should assume number one status, but he’s still injured at the moment while there’s a lot of fresh, exciting, but very much unproven-at-international-level talent lining up for a shot – Folau Fakatava, Cortez Ratima, Xavier Roe, Noah Hotham the four names that are at the centre of the discussion. TJ Perenara’s experience and leadership looms as very appealling as it would allow more time to develop other options. PS don’t be shocked if in addition to the three halfbacks named in the first squad of the year (which at this stage should be Christie, Perenara & Fakatava) an additional halfback is named to train with the squad in Dunedin (probably Hotham) and Auckland (I’d lean Ratima)
FIRST FIVE – Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett are the clear top options, with McKenzie sitting at number one based form and being the most consistent goal-kicker in the country and by some way. But why David Havili at three? Because Havili has been asked to cover first five at the Crusaders (he’s starts in 10 against the Reds this Saturday) at the direction of the All Black selectors and that’s all the info you need to slot him in behind D-Mac and Beaudy. A bloke getting very little love who has been playing outstanding rugby is Brett Cameron, while Stephen Perofeta needs to get back on the field as soon as his injury allows it.
LEFT WING – Mark Telea is my top option on both sides of the field and which one he plays will depend on who the other bloke is. Of the players better suited to the left, I have Kini Naholo just ahead of Caleb Clarke, though the latter has been super impressive in the last month. Etene Nanai-Seturo has been steady for a number of year now while Macca Springer hasn’t had many chances but has skill set and instinct for the line that has massive potential.
SECOND FIVE – Jordie Barrett shapes as the fulcrum of the back line with Anton Leinert-Brown the obvious second opton for both midfield positions. Dallas McLeod is so dependable, Sam Gilbert has occasionally been used in a “Jordie-like-fashion” for the Highlanders (though not nearly enough for this observer) while Quinn Tupaea just needs to play but has international experience to lean on.
CENTRE – Reiko Ioane should continue as first choice centre with ALB second on the depth chart. Billy Proctor is a player who deserves to be in the mix; while Dallas McLeod and Quinn Tupaea have the versatility to play either midfield position with aplomb.
RIGHT WING – Behind Telea on the right is a log-jam. Emoni Narawa has been hissing since his return from injury while Sevu Reece has been arguably the best Crusader in their un-Crusaders-like campaign. Josh Moorby goes ahead of Shaun Stevenson, given that Moorby has a touch of Will Jordan about him; that lovely ability to float being an attacking line and inject himself at the right time. Stevenson is an enigma to me but was very solid in his test debut in Dunedin last year.
FULLBACK – I’ve got McKenzie, B Barrett and Havili in here given the interchangable nature of 10 and 15 (and Leon MacDonald ran the dual play-maker system at the Blues with Barrett and Perofeta). Stevenson be solid at fullback and can be flexed out to the wing, while form alone meant I had to put Ruben Love in the mix, though I’d love for the Highlanders to tell Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens that the fifteen jersey is his and see what that would do for that young man’s game.